Wholesale turkey bids hit 184 cents a pound in October

Thanksgiving is November 26 this year, and the restaurants that sell pre-ordered dinners are setting their prices now. Most of them start from the same place: what a family would spend cooking it themselves, plus a premium for not having to.

That benchmark is the problem. The number in a customer's head comes from a grocery store selling turkey below cost, and the turkey you buy this year costs more than it has in years.

Your turkey costs more than the grocery's

The USDA's October outlook put wholesale frozen hens at 184 cents a pound in early October. Its forecast for the 2026 average is 175.5 cents, against 135.8 cents for 2025 — about 29% higher. That's with turkey production up 6%; export demand is pulling prices up. Bird flu also returned in September, with eleven flocks and about 545,000 birds affected in four Midwest states.

Retail is a different market. The Farm Bureau's 2025 Thanksgiving survey found a 16-pound turkey at $1.34 a pound in early November, below the 172 cents wholesale price that quarter. Grocers sell the bird at a loss to bring people into the store. This year Wegmans is again advertising a dinner for eight at "less than $5 per person."

You can't buy at the grocery's promotional price, and you shouldn't price against it. Your customer isn't comparing your dinner to a grocery bill; they're deciding whether to cook. Price against the other restaurants.

What restaurants charge

Published 2026 offers so far:

• Cracker Barrel: a dinner for 4–6 at "around $119.99," and for 8–10 at "around $189.99" — about $19 to $24 a person. Pickup November 21–29.
• Fair Oaks Farms (Indiana): for 4–6, $175 ready to cook or $200 fully cooked; for 8–10, $275 or $300. Orders close November 20, pickup the day before Thanksgiving in a time slot chosen at checkout.

The $25 premium for cooking is the cleanest published price I've seen for the oven time and labor.

Last year's offers, from a trade roundup, add the other structures:

• Maggiano's charged $210 for a cold pickup on Wednesday and $220 for a hot pickup on Thursday, for 4–5 people. The $10 covers working the holiday itself.
• Perry's Steakhouse listed its family meal at $149 "plus 15% handling fee and tax."
• Mitchell's Fish Market required "advance, non-refundable payment."
• Lazy Dog sold "Everything But The Turkey" for $39.95 for six — a sides-only package that takes the turkey price risk off the table.

Order deadlines cluster two to five days before Thanksgiving, and most pickups are the day before, cold.

How much turkey

The USDA's guidance is one pound of whole turkey per person. Restaurant packages run well above that: Fair Oaks sizes its 8–10 person package on an 18–22 pound bird, two pounds or more per guest. Customers expect leftovers. Size to their expectation, but price the bird by the pound at your cost, not by the guest.

How many people want it

A survey by Popmenu, which sells restaurant software, found 53% of adults planned restaurant takeout or delivery for Thanksgiving 2025, up from 37% the year before. That probably includes people buying just pies or sides. Either way, the direction is clear, and 40% of respondents thought cooking at home cost the same or more.

Capacity sets the cap, not demand

The limit on a Thanksgiving program is your walk-in and your ovens, not how many people want to buy. Count backwards: how many turkeys you can roast, cool and hold, how many hotel pans of sides fit in your refrigeration, how many pickups an hour your door can handle. Then cap the orders at that number and stop selling.

How I'd price it

1. Price per person from your real cost, with the turkey at today's wholesale price and a cushion for November.
2. Sell a sides-only package for the people who'll roast their own bird. It's lower risk and often higher margin.
3. Offer cold pickup on Wednesday at the base price, and charge more for hot on Thursday if you open at all.
4. Take full payment at order, with a clear policy: refundable until the deadline, a credit after it.
5. Close orders on a fixed date, five or six days out, so your last protein order goes in on time.
6. Cap the count at what your kitchen can actually cool and hold.

The kitchen side of pickup day — cooling, holding and the reheating sheet — is the hard part, and it's what Marcus covers. For the contract terms, see guarantees and cancellation.

What I'm not going to give you

Whole Foods' or Bob Evans' 2026 prices. I couldn't confirm current figures.

A standard refund policy. Almost nobody publishes one.

"23% of families buy a complete ready-made meal." It circulates without a source I could find.

What to do

1. Get a wholesale turkey quote this week.
2. Set prices against restaurant competitors, not grocery promos.
3. Decide your cap and your deadline before you announce.
4. Publish the refund policy with the order form.
5. Sell the sides-only package.

Disclosure: I work at Katalyst, which sells restaurant and catering software that takes pre-orders and pickup times. The number that decides whether a Thanksgiving program makes money is your cap, and only your kitchen can set it.

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